Cold United

The New York Times is putting a Siberian snow connection to the test. On the opinion page it published the interview with Judah Cohen, the commercial climate analyst at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, who proved that the answer is yes.

Judah Cohen wrote an op-ed article for The Times charting a connection between global warming, snow in Siberia and outbreaks of cold weather in parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

“Cohen points to past successful predictions of winter temperatures in North America and Europe as evidence that autumn patterns of snow cover in Siberia have a lot of relevance to people thousands of miles away. He has a prediction for the remainder of this winter, offering a fresh test of his model,” writes Andrew C. Revkin, a NYT columnist.

The science foundation caption:

“Researchers have validated a new weather prediction model that uses autumn snowfall to predict winter cold in the United States and Europe. When snowfall is high in Siberia, the resultant cold air enhances atmospheric disturbances, which propagate into the upper level of the atmosphere, or stratosphere, warming the polar vortex. When the polar vortex warms, the jet stream is pushed south leading to colder winters across the eastern United states and Europe. Conversely, under these conditions the Arctic will have a warmer than average winter.”

Read the full story on the New York Times website and find answers to the following questions:

- What got you focused on this particular puzzle piece, Siberian snow, a decade or so ago?

- Some scientists and environmental campaigners have been asserting that it’s delayed freezing of sea ice that is the most important influence jogging winter Northern Hemisphere patterns. Given the complexities of NAM/NAO, ENSO, sea ice, and Siberian snow, is it possible to know which are chickens and which eggs – or irrelevant?

- How is the “character” of Northern Hemisphere winters likely to change with continued greenhouse gas accumulation?

P.S. Hey, how much snow do we have in the early winter this time in Siberia? A lot! Does it mean that… It seems that it does!